Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. logo REYN - Reynolds Consumer Products Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $24.00
LOW: $24.00
MEDIAN: $24.00
CONSENSUS: $24.00
DOWNSIDE: 8.64%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.1% below fair value
Current Price $26.27
Bear Case $23.81 9.4% downside ($23.81 - $26.27) / $26.27 = -9.4% $1.77 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $28.91 10.1% upside ($28.91 - $26.27) / $26.27 = 10.1% $1.77 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $34.01 29.4% upside ($34.01 - $26.27) / $26.27 = 29.4% $1.77 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
1.77$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.91 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $24.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples