Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. logo REXR - Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $40.40
UPSIDE: 11.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 38.7% below fair value
Current Price $36.18
Bear Case $48.31 33.5% upside ($48.31 - $36.18) / $36.18 = 33.5% $2.28 FFO × 23x
Fair Value $59.05 63.2% upside ($59.05 - $36.18) / $36.18 = 63.2% $2.28 FFO × 29x
Bull Case $69.78 92.9% upside ($69.78 - $36.18) / $36.18 = 92.9% $2.28 FFO × 34x

Adjust Assumptions

28.6x
2.28$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.28) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.40 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.05 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $40.40 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 62% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify