RPC, Inc. logo RES - RPC, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 23
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $7.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $7.50
LOW: $7.50
MEDIAN: $7.50
CONSENSUS: $7.50
UPSIDE: 17.19%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 71.9% above fair value
Current Price $6.40
Bear Case $2.43 62.1% downside ($2.43 - $6.40) / $6.40 = -62.1% FCF $42M × 10x
Fair Value $3.72 41.8% downside ($3.72 - $6.40) / $6.40 = -41.8% FCF $55M × 13x
Bull Case $5.35 16.4% downside ($5.35 - $6.40) / $6.40 = -16.4% FCF $67M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.9x

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $3.72 per share. Range: $2.43 (bear) to $5.35 (bull).

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (36 analysts) $7.50
Analyst Range $7.50 – $7.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 50%

Warnings

Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $7.50 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential