RPC, Inc. logo RES - RPC, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 23
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $7.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $7.50
LOW: $7.50
MEDIAN: $7.50
CONSENSUS: $7.50
UPSIDE: 6.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 47.6% above fair value
Current Price $7.06
Bear Case $3.13 55.6% downside ($3.13 - $7.06) / $7.06 = -55.6% FCF $41M × 10x
Fair Value $4.78 32.2% downside ($4.78 - $7.06) / $7.06 = -32.2% FCF $53M × 13x
Bull Case $6.87 2.7% downside ($6.87 - $7.06) / $7.06 = -2.7% FCF $65M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $7.50 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $4.78 per share.

Warnings

Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $7.50 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential