AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag REPX as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for REPX is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value REPX?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from REPX's most recent reported fundamentals.

REPX - Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $37.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 17.7% above fair value

Current Price $38.60

Bear Case $11.33 70.6% downside ($11.33 - $38.60) / $38.60 = -70.6% FCF $60M × 8x

Fair Value $32.80 15.0% downside ($32.80 - $38.60) / $38.60 = -15.0% FCF $86M × 11x

Bull Case $61.42 59.1% upside ($61.42 - $38.60) / $38.60 = 59.1% FCF $112M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.5x

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $32.80 per share. Range: $11.33 (bear) to $61.42 (bull).

Warnings

⚠ If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -71%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential