Remitly Global, Inc. logo RELY - Remitly Global, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $30.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $33.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $31.00
CONSENSUS: $30.50
UPSIDE: 16.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.3% below fair value
Current Price $26.17
Bear Case $23.09 11.8% downside ($23.09 - $26.17) / $26.17 = -11.8% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $37.52 43.4% upside ($37.52 - $26.17) / $26.17 = 43.4% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $54.78 109.3% upside ($54.78 - $26.17) / $26.17 = 109.3% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

17.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 26.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 12.6% vs our 17.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $37.52 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $30.50
Analyst Range $27.00 – $33.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 23%

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 228% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions