Remitly Global, Inc. logo RELY - Remitly Global, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $23.50
CONSENSUS: $23.50
UPSIDE: 8.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 35.9% below fair value
Current Price $21.58
Bear Case $20.75 3.9% downside ($20.75 - $21.58) / $21.58 = -3.9% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $33.64 55.9% upside ($33.64 - $21.58) / $21.58 = 55.9% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $49.07 127.4% upside ($49.07 - $21.58) / $21.58 = 127.4% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

17.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 21.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.64 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 228% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 54% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions