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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $30.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $30.00
CONSENSUS: $30.00
UPSIDE: 0.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 208.1% above fair value
Current Price $29.81
Bear Case $8.10 72.8% downside ($8.10 - $29.81) / $29.81 = -72.8% $0.45 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $9.68 67.5% downside ($9.68 - $29.81) / $29.81 = -67.5% $0.45 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $11.25 62.3% downside ($11.25 - $29.81) / $29.81 = -62.3% $0.45 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
0.45$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 66.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.45, the base-case value is $9.68 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $30.00
Analyst Range $25.00 – $35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 68%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $30.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples