Red Violet, Inc. logo RDVT - Red Violet, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $84.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $73.00
MEDIAN: $90.00
CONSENSUS: $84.33
UPSIDE: 5.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 21.2% above fair value
Current Price $80.12
Bear Case $36.68 54.2% downside ($36.68 - $80.12) / $80.12 = -54.2% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $66.10 17.5% downside ($66.10 - $80.12) / $80.12 = -17.5% 21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $103.79 29.5% upside ($103.79 - $80.12) / $80.12 = 29.5% 27% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.1%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (21% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 52.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 23.9% vs our 21.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 21% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $66.10 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 49% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions