Radian Group Inc. logo RDN - Radian Group Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 13
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $47.00
LOW: $39.00
MEDIAN: $43.00
CONSENSUS: $43.00
UPSIDE: 10.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 38.0% below fair value
Current Price $38.92
Bear Case $39.49 1.5% upside ($39.49 - $38.92) / $38.92 = 1.5% ROTCE 9.2% → 1.22x TBV
Fair Value $62.82 61.4% upside ($62.82 - $38.92) / $38.92 = 61.4% ROTCE 12.2% → 1.94x TBV
Bull Case $76.82 97.4% upside ($76.82 - $38.92) / $38.92 = 97.4% ROTCE 14.1% → 2.37x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.2%
8.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.09x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.00 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $62.82 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $43.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 61% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly