Republic Bancorp, Inc. logo RBCAA - Republic Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $51.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $51.00
LOW: $51.00
MEDIAN: $51.00
CONSENSUS: $51.00
DOWNSIDE: 42.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 39.7% below fair value
Current Price $88.42
Bear Case $92.40 4.5% upside ($92.40 - $88.42) / $88.42 = 4.5% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.52x TBV
Fair Value $146.55 65.7% upside ($146.55 - $88.42) / $88.42 = 65.7% ROTCE 12.4% → 2.41x TBV
Bull Case $179.04 102.5% upside ($179.04 - $88.42) / $88.42 = 102.5% ROTCE 14.2% → 2.95x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.4%
7.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.4%) vs. cost of equity (7.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.46x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 12.4% vs. 7.5% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.41x on $60.74 tangible book, implying $146.55 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly