RBC Bearings Incorporated logo RBC - RBC Bearings Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $583.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $640.00
LOW: $527.00
MEDIAN: $595.00
CONSENSUS: $583.80
UPSIDE: 4.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 95.2% above fair value
Current Price $559.95
Bear Case $189.87 66.1% downside ($189.87 - $559.95) / $559.95 = -66.1% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $286.83 48.8% downside ($286.83 - $559.95) / $559.95 = -48.8% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $386.41 31.0% downside ($386.41 - $559.95) / $559.95 = -31.0% 16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.9%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 58.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $583.80 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $286.83 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $583.80 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions