RBC Bearings Incorporated logo RBC - RBC Bearings Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $598.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $640.00
LOW: $542.00
MEDIAN: $605.00
CONSENSUS: $598.00
UPSIDE: 0.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 105.1% above fair value
Current Price $595.49
Bear Case $192.22 67.7% downside ($192.22 - $595.49) / $595.49 = -67.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $290.38 51.2% downside ($290.38 - $595.49) / $595.49 = -51.2% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $391.19 34.3% downside ($391.19 - $595.49) / $595.49 = -34.3% 16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.9%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 62.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 26.3% vs our 11.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $598.00 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $290.38 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $598.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions