Ralliant Corp logo RAL - Ralliant Corp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $69.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $78.00
LOW: $65.00
MEDIAN: $67.00
CONSENSUS: $69.20
UPSIDE: 12.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 37.8% above fair value
Current Price $61.71
Bear Case $35.82 42.0% downside ($35.82 - $61.71) / $61.71 = -42.0% $2.98 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $44.77 27.5% downside ($44.77 - $61.71) / $61.71 = -27.5% $2.98 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $53.72 12.9% downside ($53.72 - $61.71) / $61.71 = -12.9% $2.98 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.98$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.98, the base-case value is $44.77 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $69.20
Analyst Range $65.00 – $78.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 35%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $69.20 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples