Q2 Holdings, Inc. logo QTWO - Q2 Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $73.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $82.00
LOW: $63.00
MEDIAN: $74.00
CONSENSUS: $73.20
UPSIDE: 33.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.9% below fair value
Current Price $54.86
Bear Case $39.55 27.9% downside ($39.55 - $54.86) / $54.86 = -27.9% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $60.24 9.8% upside ($60.24 - $54.86) / $54.86 = 9.8% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $82.92 51.1% upside ($82.92 - $54.86) / $54.86 = 51.1% 19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.6%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 26.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 14.6% vs our 14.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $73.20 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $60.24 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 167% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $73.20 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions