QTWO - Q2 Holdings, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$73.20
DETAILS
HIGH:
$82.00
LOW:
$63.00
MEDIAN:
$74.00
CONSENSUS:
$73.20
UPSIDE:
33.43%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
80% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
14.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
26.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.6%
vs our 14.6% base
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $73.20 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $60.24 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 167% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $73.20 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions