Restaurant Brands International Inc. logo QSR - Restaurant Brands International Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 27
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $83.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $92.00
LOW: $71.00
MEDIAN: $83.00
CONSENSUS: $83.25
UPSIDE: 10.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.7% below fair value
Current Price $75.01
Bear Case $96.15 28.2% upside ($96.15 - $75.01) / $75.01 = 28.2% $4.65 × 23x P/E
Fair Value $114.85 53.1% upside ($114.85 - $75.01) / $75.01 = 53.1% $4.65 × 28x P/E
Bull Case $133.55 78.0% upside ($133.55 - $75.01) / $75.01 = 78.0% $4.65 × 32x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

27.6x
4.65$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (28x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $83.25 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $114.85 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 98%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 108% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $58.24 (below our primary estimate by 55%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $83.25 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 54% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples