Restaurant Brands International Inc. logo QSR - Restaurant Brands International Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 27
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $84.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $92.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $85.00
CONSENSUS: $84.60
UPSIDE: 12.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 10.2% above fair value
Current Price $75.34
Bear Case $57.24 24.0% downside ($57.24 - $75.34) / $75.34 = -24.0% $3.18 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $68.37 9.3% downside ($68.37 - $75.34) / $75.34 = -9.3% $3.18 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $79.50 5.5% upside ($79.50 - $75.34) / $75.34 = 5.5% $3.18 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
3.18$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.18, the base-case value is $68.37 per share. DDM cross-check: $60.99.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (44 analysts) $84.60
Analyst Range $80.00 – $92.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 19%

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 35%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
⚠ The company pays out 109% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples