Restaurant Brands International Inc. logo QSR - Restaurant Brands International Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 27
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $83.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $92.00
LOW: $71.00
MEDIAN: $84.50
CONSENSUS: $83.83
UPSIDE: 10.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.3% below fair value
Current Price $75.59
Bear Case $96.30 27.4% upside ($96.30 - $75.59) / $75.59 = 27.4% $4.65 × 23x P/E
Fair Value $115.02 52.2% upside ($115.02 - $75.59) / $75.59 = 52.2% $4.65 × 28x P/E
Bull Case $133.75 76.9% upside ($133.75 - $75.59) / $75.59 = 76.9% $4.65 × 32x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

27.6x
4.65$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (28x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $83.83 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $115.02 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 98%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 108% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $58.24 (below our primary estimate by 55%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $83.83 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 53% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples