Qorvo, Inc. logo QRVO - Qorvo, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 28
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $94.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $120.00
LOW: $66.00
MEDIAN: $96.00
CONSENSUS: $94.00
DOWNSIDE: 2.16%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 109.7% above fair value
Current Price $96.08
Bear Case $34.37 64.2% downside ($34.37 - $96.08) / $96.08 = -64.2% $2.86 × 12x
Fair Value $45.82 52.3% downside ($45.82 - $96.08) / $96.08 = -52.3% $2.86 × 16x
Bull Case $57.28 40.4% downside ($57.28 - $96.08) / $96.08 = -40.4% $2.86 × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.86$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.86)

Implied Market Multiple 33.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $2.86 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $45.82 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 9.7x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (42 analysts) $94.00
Analyst Range $66.00 – $120.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 51%

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 9.7x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $94.00 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing