Qorvo, Inc. logo QRVO - Qorvo, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 28
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $88.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $120.00
LOW: $66.00
MEDIAN: $87.00
CONSENSUS: $88.86
DOWNSIDE: 16.51%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 64.8% above fair value
Current Price $106.43
Bear Case $47.32 55.5% downside ($47.32 - $106.43) / $106.43 = -55.5% $3.62 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $64.58 39.3% downside ($64.58 - $106.43) / $106.43 = -39.3% $3.62 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $81.84 23.1% downside ($81.84 - $106.43) / $106.43 = -23.1% $3.62 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.62$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.62)

Implied Market Multiple 29.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $88.86 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.58 per share.

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 10.8x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $88.86 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing