QCR Holdings, Inc. logo QCRH - QCR Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $103.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $107.00
LOW: $99.00
MEDIAN: $103.00
CONSENSUS: $103.00
UPSIDE: 13.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.0% below fair value
Current Price $90.88
Bear Case $73.72 18.9% downside ($73.72 - $90.88) / $90.88 = -18.9% ROTCE 9.9% → 1.29x TBV
Fair Value $115.01 26.5% upside ($115.01 - $90.88) / $90.88 = 26.5% ROTCE 13.2% → 2.02x TBV
Bull Case $139.78 53.8% upside ($139.78 - $90.88) / $90.88 = 53.8% ROTCE 15.1% → 2.45x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.2%
8.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.55x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $103.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $115.01 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.33 (95% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly