QCR Holdings, Inc. logo QCRH - QCR Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $109.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $123.00
LOW: $99.00
MEDIAN: $105.00
CONSENSUS: $109.00
UPSIDE: 8.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.4% below fair value
Current Price $100.77
Bear Case $78.19 22.4% downside ($78.19 - $100.77) / $100.77 = -22.4% ROTCE 9.9% → 1.34x TBV
Fair Value $121.99 21.1% upside ($121.99 - $100.77) / $100.77 = 21.1% ROTCE 13.2% → 2.09x TBV
Bull Case $148.27 47.1% upside ($148.27 - $100.77) / $100.77 = 47.1% ROTCE 15.1% → 2.54x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.2%
8.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.72x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.2% vs. 8.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.09x on $58.49 tangible book, implying $121.99 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $109.00
Analyst Range $99.00 – $123.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly