QUALCOMM Incorporated logo QCOM - QUALCOMM Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 29
HOLD 34
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $218.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $300.00
LOW: $120.00
MEDIAN: $220.00
CONSENSUS: $218.50
UPSIDE: 15.51%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 19.4% below fair value
Current Price $189.16
Bear Case $157.57 16.7% downside ($157.57 - $189.16) / $189.16 = -16.7% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $234.79 24.1% upside ($234.79 - $189.16) / $189.16 = 24.1% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $317.17 67.7% upside ($317.17 - $189.16) / $189.16 = 67.7% 18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 18.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.1% vs our 13.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $218.50 from 69 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $234.79 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 50% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions