AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Papa John's International, Inc. as a Stable Earnings Power business and values it using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag PZZA as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Papa John's International, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for PZZA comes from a P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Stable Earnings Power classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value PZZA?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. PZZA was classified as Stable Earnings Power and is valued using P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple, built from PZZA's most recent reported fundamentals.

PZZA - Papa John's International, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $24.75 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 55.2% below fair value

Current Price $18.88

Bear Case $34.72 83.9% upside ($34.72 - $18.88) / $18.88 = 83.9% $2.48 × 14x P/E

Fair Value $42.16 123.3% upside ($42.16 - $18.88) / $18.88 = 123.3% $2.48 × 17x P/E

Bull Case $49.60 162.7% upside ($49.60 - $18.88) / $18.88 = 162.7% $2.48 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

17.0x

Adjusted EPS

2.48$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 7.6x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.48, the base-case value is $42.16 per share. DDM cross-check: $81.59.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (32 analysts) $24.75

Analyst Range $19.00 – $28.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 70%

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 176%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

⚠ The company pays out 204% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $81.59 (above our primary estimate by 94%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $24.75 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 70% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples