AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Papa John's International, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag PZZA as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Papa John's International, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for PZZA is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value PZZA?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from PZZA's most recent reported fundamentals.

PZZA - Papa John's International, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $38.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate

Trading 18.4% below fair value

Current Price $33.40

Bear Case $33.69 0.9% upside ($33.69 - $33.40) / $33.40 = 0.9% $2.48 × 14x P/E

Fair Value $40.91 22.5% upside ($40.91 - $33.40) / $33.40 = 22.5% $2.48 × 17x P/E

Bull Case $48.13 44.1% upside ($48.13 - $33.40) / $33.40 = 44.1% $2.48 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

17.0x

Adjusted EPS

2.48$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $38.00 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.91 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 176%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

⚠ The company pays out 204% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $81.59 (above our primary estimate by 94%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples