Quanta Services, Inc. logo PWR - Quanta Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 27
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $721.08 DETAILS
HIGH: $940.00
LOW: $575.00
MEDIAN: $685.00
CONSENSUS: $721.08
UPSIDE: 12.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 24.1% above fair value
Current Price $639.20
Bear Case $256.47 59.9% downside ($256.47 - $639.20) / $639.20 = -59.9% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $514.97 19.4% downside ($514.97 - $639.20) / $639.20 = -19.4% 20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $842.68 31.8% upside ($842.68 - $639.20) / $639.20 = 31.8% 27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (20% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 47%
Implied Market Multiple 68.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 25.4% vs our 20.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $721.08 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $514.97 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $721.08 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions