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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 21
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $91.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $121.00
LOW: $78.00
MEDIAN: $83.00
CONSENSUS: $91.00
UPSIDE: 7.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 46.5% below fair value
Current Price $84.68
Bear Case $126.72 49.6% upside ($126.72 - $84.68) / $84.68 = 49.6% $10.56 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $158.40 87.1% upside ($158.40 - $84.68) / $84.68 = 87.1% $10.56 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $190.08 124.5% upside ($190.08 - $84.68) / $84.68 = 124.5% $10.56 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
10.56$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $10.56, the base-case value is $158.40 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (38 analysts) $91.00
Analyst Range $78.00 – $121.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 74%

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 1892%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $91.00 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 74% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples