Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. logo PTGX - Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 25
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $123.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $145.00
LOW: $110.00
MEDIAN: $119.00
CONSENSUS: $123.25
DOWNSIDE: 6.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 210.1% above fair value
Current Price $131.42
Bear Case $37.36 71.6% downside ($37.36 - $131.42) / $131.42 = -71.6% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $42.38 67.7% downside ($42.38 - $131.42) / $131.42 = -67.7% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $47.44 63.9% downside ($47.44 - $131.42) / $131.42 = -63.9% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.9%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 365.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 51.3% vs our 10.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $123.25 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.38 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $123.25 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions