Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. logo PTGX - Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 25
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $115.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $121.00
LOW: $108.00
MEDIAN: $117.00
CONSENSUS: $115.40
UPSIDE: 16.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 145.4% above fair value
Current Price $99.19
Bear Case $35.63 64.1% downside ($35.63 - $99.19) / $99.19 = -64.1% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $40.42 59.2% downside ($40.42 - $99.19) / $99.19 = -59.2% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $45.24 54.4% downside ($45.24 - $99.19) / $99.19 = -54.4% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.9%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 269.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $115.40 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.42 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $115.40 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions