AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag PTEN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for PTEN is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value PTEN?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from PTEN's most recent reported fundamentals.

PTEN - Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $12.29 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 1.8% above fair value

Current Price $10.02

Bear Case $3.73 62.8% downside ($3.73 - $10.02) / $10.02 = -62.8% FCF $261M × 8x

Fair Value $9.84 1.8% downside ($9.84 - $10.02) / $10.02 = -1.8% FCF $372M × 11x

Bull Case $17.99 79.6% upside ($17.99 - $10.02) / $10.02 = 79.6% FCF $484M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.29 from 53 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $9.84 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $12.29 (from 53 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential