AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag PTEN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for PTEN is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value PTEN?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from PTEN's most recent reported fundamentals.

PTEN - Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $11.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 31.1% above fair value

Current Price $12.31

Bear Case $3.56 71.1% downside ($3.56 - $12.31) / $12.31 = -71.1% FCF $261M × 8x

Fair Value $9.39 23.7% downside ($9.39 - $12.31) / $12.31 = -23.7% FCF $372M × 11x

Bull Case $17.17 39.5% upside ($17.17 - $12.31) / $12.31 = 39.5% FCF $484M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.00 from 53 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $9.39 per share.

Warnings

⚠ If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -74%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential