Postal Realty Trust, Inc. logo PSTL - Postal Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.00
LOW: $23.00
MEDIAN: $24.50
CONSENSUS: $24.50
UPSIDE: 6.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 34.0% above fair value
Current Price $22.90
Bear Case $13.15 42.6% downside ($13.15 - $22.90) / $22.90 = -42.6% $1.01 FFO × 13x
Fair Value $17.09 25.4% downside ($17.09 - $22.90) / $22.90 = -25.4% $1.01 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $21.04 8.1% downside ($21.04 - $22.90) / $22.90 = -8.1% $1.01 FFO × 21x

Adjust Assumptions

16.9x
1.01$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.01) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 22.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.01 FFO/share with a 17x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $17.09 per share. Dividend yield: 4.3%. DDM cross-check: $14.82.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $24.50
Analyst Range $23.00 – $26.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 30%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.50 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify