Postal Realty Trust, Inc. logo PSTL - Postal Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $23.50
CONSENSUS: $23.25
DOWNSIDE: 1.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 27.4% above fair value
Current Price $23.69
Bear Case $14.70 37.9% downside ($14.70 - $23.69) / $23.69 = -37.9% $1.09 FFO × 13x
Fair Value $18.59 21.5% downside ($18.59 - $23.69) / $23.69 = -21.5% $1.09 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $22.49 5.1% downside ($22.49 - $23.69) / $23.69 = -5.1% $1.09 FFO × 21x

Adjust Assumptions

16.9x
1.09$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.09) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 21.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $23.25 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.59 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.25 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify