Postal Realty Trust, Inc. logo PSTL - Postal Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $29.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $26.00
CONSENSUS: $26.67
UPSIDE: 19.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 30.5% above fair value
Current Price $22.31
Bear Case $13.15 41.1% downside ($13.15 - $22.31) / $22.31 = -41.1% $1.01 FFO × 13x
Fair Value $17.09 23.4% downside ($17.09 - $22.31) / $22.31 = -23.4% $1.01 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $21.04 5.7% downside ($21.04 - $22.31) / $22.31 = -5.7% $1.01 FFO × 21x

Adjust Assumptions

16.9x
1.01$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.01) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 22.1x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.01 FFO/share with a 17x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $17.09 per share. Dividend yield: 4.4%. DDM cross-check: $14.82.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $26.67
Analyst Range $25.00 – $29.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 36%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $26.67 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify