Postal Realty Trust, Inc. logo PSTL - Postal Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $24.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.00
LOW: $23.00
MEDIAN: $24.50
CONSENSUS: $24.50
UPSIDE: 1.16%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 10.1% above fair value
Current Price $24.22
Bear Case $18.25 24.7% downside ($18.25 - $24.22) / $24.22 = -24.7% $1.09 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $22.00 9.1% downside ($22.00 - $24.22) / $24.22 = -9.1% $1.09 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $25.76 6.4% upside ($25.76 - $24.22) / $24.22 = 6.4% $1.09 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
1.09$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.09) × diversified P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 22.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.50 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.00 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $15.26 (29% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify