Parsons Corporation logo PSN - Parsons Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 10
HOLD 4
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $81.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $104.00
LOW: $65.00
MEDIAN: $79.00
CONSENSUS: $81.75
UPSIDE: 51.30%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 29.1% below fair value
Current Price $54.03
Bear Case $53.81 0.4% downside ($53.81 - $54.03) / $54.03 = -0.4% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $76.23 41.1% upside ($76.23 - $54.03) / $54.03 = 41.1% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $98.34 82.0% upside ($98.34 - $54.03) / $54.03 = 82.0% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 16.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 6.4% vs our 10.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $81.75 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.23 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions