PriceSmart, Inc. logo PSMT - PriceSmart, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $83.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $77.00
MEDIAN: $83.50
CONSENSUS: $83.50
DOWNSIDE: 49.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.9% above fair value
Current Price $164.65
Bear Case $130.47 20.8% downside ($130.47 - $164.65) / $164.65 = -20.8% $4.82 × 30x P/E
Fair Value $158.44 3.8% downside ($158.44 - $164.65) / $164.65 = -3.8% $4.82 × 37x P/E
Bull Case $186.39 13.2% upside ($186.39 - $164.65) / $164.65 = 13.2% $4.82 × 43x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

36.8x
4.82$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (37x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 34.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $83.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $158.44 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $83.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 112% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples