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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $198.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $198.00
LOW: $198.00
MEDIAN: $198.00
CONSENSUS: $198.00
UPSIDE: 16.92%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.4% below fair value
Current Price $169.34
Bear Case $145.90 13.8% downside ($145.90 - $169.34) / $169.34 = -13.8% $4.82 × 30x P/E
Fair Value $177.17 4.6% upside ($177.17 - $169.34) / $169.34 = 4.6% $4.82 × 37x P/E
Bull Case $208.43 23.1% upside ($208.43 - $169.34) / $169.34 = 23.1% $4.82 × 43x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

36.8x
4.82$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (37x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 35.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 37x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.82, the base-case value is $177.17 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (8 analysts) $198.00
Analyst Range $198.00 – $198.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 11%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples