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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 11
HOLD 22
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $308.36 DETAILS
HIGH: $349.00
LOW: $285.00
MEDIAN: $305.00
CONSENSUS: $308.36
UPSIDE: 1.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.1% below fair value
Current Price $305.25
Bear Case $282.86 7.3% downside ($282.86 - $305.25) / $305.25 = -7.3% $16.73 FFO × 20x
Fair Value $343.21 12.4% upside ($343.21 - $305.25) / $305.25 = 12.4% $16.73 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $403.58 32.2% upside ($403.58 - $305.25) / $305.25 = 32.2% $16.73 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.9x
16.73$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($16.73) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 18.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $308.36 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $343.21 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $223.64 (38% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify