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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 10
HOLD 23
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $320.09 DETAILS
HIGH: $349.00
LOW: $285.00
MEDIAN: $316.00
CONSENSUS: $320.09
DOWNSIDE: 0.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.5% below fair value
Current Price $320.56
Bear Case $285.72 10.9% downside ($285.72 - $320.56) / $320.56 = -10.9% $16.72 FFO × 20x
Fair Value $346.70 8.2% upside ($346.70 - $320.56) / $320.56 = 8.2% $16.72 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $407.66 27.2% upside ($407.66 - $320.56) / $320.56 = 27.2% $16.72 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.9x
16.72$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($16.72) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 19.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $320.09 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $346.70 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $223.64 (38% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify