PRTA - Prothena Corporation plc
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$19.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$19.00
LOW:
$19.00
MEDIAN:
$19.00
CONSENSUS:
$19.00
UPSIDE:
93.29%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
40% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
21.0x
1.38$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.1x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.00 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.48 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 53% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples