Prothena Corporation plc logo PRTA - Prothena Corporation plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 6
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $19.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $19.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $19.00
CONSENSUS: $19.00
UPSIDE: 93.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 62.9% below fair value
Current Price $9.83
Bear Case $22.70 130.9% upside ($22.70 - $9.83) / $9.83 = 130.9% $1.38 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $26.48 169.4% upside ($26.48 - $9.83) / $9.83 = 169.4% $1.38 × 21x P/E
Bull Case $30.27 207.9% upside ($30.27 - $9.83) / $9.83 = 207.9% $1.38 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.0x
1.38$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.00 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.48 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 53% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples