United Parks & Resorts Inc. logo PRKS - United Parks & Resorts Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $48.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $54.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $50.50
CONSENSUS: $48.75
UPSIDE: 32.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 11.2% above fair value
Current Price $36.78
Bear Case $25.56 30.5% downside ($25.56 - $36.78) / $36.78 = -30.5% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $33.08 10.1% downside ($33.08 - $36.78) / $36.78 = -10.1% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $41.74 13.5% upside ($41.74 - $36.78) / $36.78 = 13.5% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

4.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (4% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 15.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.75 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.08 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $48.75 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions