United Parks & Resorts Inc. logo PRKS - United Parks & Resorts Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $48.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $54.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $49.50
CONSENSUS: $48.25
UPSIDE: 2.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 40.5% above fair value
Current Price $46.87
Bear Case $25.28 46.1% downside ($25.28 - $46.87) / $46.87 = -46.1% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $33.36 28.8% downside ($33.36 - $46.87) / $46.87 = -28.8% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $42.23 9.9% downside ($42.23 - $46.87) / $46.87 = -9.9% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

4.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (4% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 17.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 7.2% vs our 4.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.25 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.36 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $48.25 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions