United Parks & Resorts Inc. logo PRKS - United Parks & Resorts Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $46.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $46.29
UPSIDE: 3.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 27.4% below fair value
Current Price $44.77
Bear Case $48.75 8.9% upside ($48.75 - $44.77) / $44.77 = 8.9% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $61.70 37.8% upside ($61.70 - $44.77) / $44.77 = 37.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $73.71 64.6% upside ($73.71 - $44.77) / $44.77 = 64.6% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

4.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 12.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 2.4% vs our 4.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $61.70 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (23 analysts) $46.29
Analyst Range $40.00 – $55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 33%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $46.29 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions