Park National Corporation logo PRK - Park National Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $203.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $217.00
LOW: $190.00
MEDIAN: $203.50
CONSENSUS: $203.50
UPSIDE: 15.30%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 1.3% above fair value
Current Price $176.50
Bear Case $115.04 34.8% downside ($115.04 - $176.50) / $176.50 = -34.8% ROTCE 11.3% → 1.75x TBV
Fair Value $174.28 1.3% downside ($174.28 - $176.50) / $176.50 = -1.3% ROTCE 15.1% → 2.65x TBV
Bull Case $209.82 18.9% upside ($209.82 - $176.50) / $176.50 = 18.9% ROTCE 17.4% → 3.19x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
8.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.68x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.1% vs. 8.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.65x on $65.80 tangible book, implying $174.28 per share. DDM cross-check: $201.01.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly