Park National Corporation logo PRK - Park National Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $189.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $189.00
LOW: $189.00
MEDIAN: $189.00
CONSENSUS: $189.00
UPSIDE: 2.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 2.5% above fair value
Current Price $184.46
Bear Case $118.77 35.6% downside ($118.77 - $184.46) / $184.46 = -35.6% ROTCE 11.3% → 1.80x TBV
Fair Value $179.93 2.5% downside ($179.93 - $184.46) / $184.46 = -2.5% ROTCE 15.1% → 2.73x TBV
Bull Case $216.63 17.4% upside ($216.63 - $184.46) / $184.46 = 17.4% ROTCE 17.4% → 3.29x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
8.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.8x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.1% vs. 8.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.73x on $65.80 tangible book, implying $179.93 per share. DDM cross-check: $204.52.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly