Park National Corporation logo PRK - Park National Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $217.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $217.00
LOW: $217.00
MEDIAN: $217.00
CONSENSUS: $217.00
UPSIDE: 8.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 9.9% above fair value
Current Price $199.89
Bear Case $120.07 39.9% downside ($120.07 - $199.89) / $199.89 = -39.9% ROTCE 11.3% → 1.82x TBV
Fair Value $181.90 9.0% downside ($181.90 - $199.89) / $199.89 = -9.0% ROTCE 15.1% → 2.76x TBV
Bull Case $219.00 9.6% upside ($219.00 - $199.89) / $199.89 = 9.6% ROTCE 17.4% → 3.33x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
8.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.04x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.1% vs. 8.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.76x on $65.80 tangible book, implying $181.90 per share. DDM cross-check: $213.79.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly