Park National Corporation logo PRK - Park National Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $188.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $188.00
LOW: $188.00
MEDIAN: $188.00
CONSENSUS: $188.00
UPSIDE: 10.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.6% below fair value
Current Price $169.58
Bear Case $116.10 31.5% downside ($116.10 - $169.58) / $169.58 = -31.5% ROTCE 11.3% → 1.76x TBV
Fair Value $175.89 3.7% upside ($175.89 - $169.58) / $169.58 = 3.7% ROTCE 15.1% → 2.67x TBV
Bull Case $211.76 24.9% upside ($211.76 - $169.58) / $169.58 = 24.9% ROTCE 17.4% → 3.22x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
8.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.58x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.1% vs. 8.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.67x on $65.80 tangible book, implying $175.89 per share. DDM cross-check: $198.08.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly