Primerica, Inc. logo PRI - Primerica, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $301.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $320.00
LOW: $268.00
MEDIAN: $316.00
CONSENSUS: $301.33
UPSIDE: 2.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.4% below fair value
Current Price $293.51
Bear Case $246.53 16.0% downside ($246.53 - $293.51) / $293.51 = -16.0% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.14x TBV
Fair Value $313.74 6.9% upside ($313.74 - $293.51) / $293.51 = 6.9% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $313.74 6.9% upside ($313.74 - $293.51) / $293.51 = 6.9% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

30.7%
9.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (30.7%) vs. cost of equity (9.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.74x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 30.7% vs. 9.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $78.43 tangible book, implying $313.74 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $301.33
Analyst Range $268.00 – $320.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 4%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly