Primerica, Inc. logo PRI - Primerica, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $291.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $291.00
LOW: $291.00
MEDIAN: $291.00
CONSENSUS: $291.00
UPSIDE: 4.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.2% below fair value
Current Price $279.75
Bear Case $232.52 16.9% downside ($232.52 - $279.75) / $279.75 = -16.9% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.02x TBV
Fair Value $308.06 10.1% upside ($308.06 - $279.75) / $279.75 = 10.1% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $308.06 10.1% upside ($308.06 - $279.75) / $279.75 = 10.1% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

30.7%
9.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (30.7%) vs. cost of equity (9.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.57x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $291.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $308.06 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly