Progress Software Corporation logo PRGS - Progress Software Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $45.00
UPSIDE: 51.11%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.9% below fair value
Current Price $29.78
Bear Case $38.69 29.9% upside ($38.69 - $29.78) / $29.78 = 29.9% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $39.64 33.1% upside ($39.64 - $29.78) / $29.78 = 33.1% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $43.89 47.4% upside ($43.89 - $29.78) / $29.78 = 47.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 11.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.64 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 89% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions