PRAA - PRA Group, Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$25.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$26.00
LOW:
$24.00
MEDIAN:
$25.00
CONSENSUS:
$25.00
UPSIDE:
70.77%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
-32.0%
11.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-32.0%) vs. cost of equity (11.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.59x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.28 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-32.0%) is below the minimum investors require (11.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 76% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly