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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 86.7% above fair value
Current Price $48.56
Bear Case $22.75 53.1% downside ($22.75 - $48.56) / $48.56 = -53.1% $1.63 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $26.01 46.4% downside ($26.01 - $48.56) / $48.56 = -46.4% $1.63 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $29.26 39.8% downside ($29.26 - $48.56) / $48.56 = -39.8% $1.63 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.63$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 29.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.63, the base-case value is $26.01 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 103% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples