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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 83.9% above fair value
Current Price $46.79
Bear Case $22.26 52.4% downside ($22.26 - $46.79) / $46.79 = -52.4% $1.59 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $25.44 45.6% downside ($25.44 - $46.79) / $46.79 = -45.6% $1.59 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $28.62 38.8% downside ($28.62 - $46.79) / $46.79 = -38.8% $1.59 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.59$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 29.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.59, the base-case value is $25.44 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company pays out 158% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples