PPL Corporation logo PPL - PPL Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 20
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $39.36 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $35.00
MEDIAN: $39.00
CONSENSUS: $39.36
UPSIDE: 13.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 35.9% above fair value
Current Price $34.58
Bear Case $22.26 35.6% downside ($22.26 - $34.58) / $34.58 = -35.6% $1.59 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $25.44 26.4% downside ($25.44 - $34.58) / $34.58 = -26.4% $1.59 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $28.62 17.2% downside ($28.62 - $34.58) / $34.58 = -17.2% $1.59 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.59$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.59, the base-case value is $25.44 per share. DDM cross-check: $16.64.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $39.36
Analyst Range $35.00 – $44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 35%

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $16.64 (below our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $39.36 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples