PPL Corporation logo PPL - PPL Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 20
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $41.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.00
LOW: $39.00
MEDIAN: $41.00
CONSENSUS: $41.63
UPSIDE: 14.62%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 21.0% above fair value
Current Price $36.32
Bear Case $26.27 27.7% downside ($26.27 - $36.32) / $36.32 = -27.7% $1.63 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $30.03 17.3% downside ($30.03 - $36.32) / $36.32 = -17.3% $1.63 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $33.78 7.0% downside ($33.78 - $36.32) / $36.32 = -7.0% $1.63 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.63$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.63 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $30.03 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $41.63 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples