PPL Corporation logo PPL - PPL Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 20
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $41.50
CONSENSUS: $40.75
UPSIDE: 16.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 38.0% above fair value
Current Price $35.11
Bear Case $22.26 36.6% downside ($22.26 - $35.11) / $35.11 = -36.6% $1.59 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $25.44 27.5% downside ($25.44 - $35.11) / $35.11 = -27.5% $1.59 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $28.62 18.5% downside ($28.62 - $35.11) / $35.11 = -18.5% $1.59 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.59$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.59, the base-case value is $25.44 per share. DDM cross-check: $16.64.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $40.75
Analyst Range $37.00 – $44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 38%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $16.64 (below our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $40.75 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples