Outdoor Holding Company logo POWW - Outdoor Holding Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $2.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $2.25
LOW: $2.25
MEDIAN: $2.25
CONSENSUS: $2.25
UPSIDE: 9.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 70% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 66.7% below fair value
Current Price $2.06
Bear Case $5.10 147.8% upside ($5.10 - $2.06) / $2.06 = 147.8% $0.27 × 18x + net cash
Fair Value $6.18 200.2% upside ($6.18 - $2.06) / $2.06 = 200.2% $0.27 × 22x + net cash
Bull Case $7.26 252.6% upside ($7.26 - $2.06) / $2.06 = 252.6% $0.27 × 26x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

22.0x
0.27$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.27)

Implied Market Multiple 7.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.27 at a 22x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $6.18 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 7.5x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 7.5x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing