Powell Industries, Inc. logo POWL - Powell Industries, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $333.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $333.00
LOW: $333.00
MEDIAN: $333.00
CONSENSUS: $333.00
UPSIDE: 43.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 20.8% above fair value
Current Price $232.21
Bear Case $123.88 46.7% downside ($123.88 - $232.21) / $232.21 = -46.7% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $192.22 17.2% downside ($192.22 - $232.21) / $232.21 = -17.2% 16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $270.84 16.6% upside ($270.84 - $232.21) / $232.21 = 16.6% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 52.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 21.9% vs our 16.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $333.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $192.22 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $333.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions