Power Integrations, Inc. logo POWI - Power Integrations, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $90.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $90.00
MEDIAN: $90.00
CONSENSUS: $90.00
UPSIDE: 7.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 83.0% above fair value
Current Price $83.76
Bear Case $35.99 57.0% downside ($35.99 - $83.76) / $83.76 = -57.0% $1.66 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $45.78 45.3% downside ($45.78 - $83.76) / $83.76 = -45.3% $1.66 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $55.57 33.7% downside ($55.57 - $83.76) / $83.76 = -33.7% $1.66 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.66$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.66)

Implied Market Multiple 50.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $90.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.78 per share.

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 8.2x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $90.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing