Pinnacle West Capital Corporation logo PNW - Pinnacle West Capital Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $102.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $108.00
LOW: $92.00
MEDIAN: $104.50
CONSENSUS: $102.38
DOWNSIDE: 0.54%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.0% above fair value
Current Price $102.94
Bear Case $79.69 22.6% downside ($79.69 - $102.94) / $102.94 = -22.6% $5.46 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $91.08 11.5% downside ($91.08 - $102.94) / $102.94 = -11.5% $5.46 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $102.46 0.5% downside ($102.46 - $102.94) / $102.94 = -0.5% $5.46 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
5.46$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $102.38 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $91.08 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $55.78 (below our primary estimate by 36%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples