Pentair plc logo PNR - Pentair plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 19
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $113.56 DETAILS
HIGH: $135.00
LOW: $90.00
MEDIAN: $115.00
CONSENSUS: $113.56
UPSIDE: 51.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.3% below fair value
Current Price $74.82
Bear Case $65.31 12.7% downside ($65.31 - $74.82) / $74.82 = -12.7% $4.53 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $81.63 9.1% upside ($81.63 - $74.82) / $74.82 = 9.1% $4.53 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $97.96 30.9% upside ($97.96 - $74.82) / $74.82 = 30.9% $4.53 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.53$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $113.56 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $81.63 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $37.27 (below our primary estimate by 45%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $113.56 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples