Pentair plc logo PNR - Pentair plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 22
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $79.64 DETAILS
HIGH: $94.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $81.00
CONSENSUS: $79.64
UPSIDE: 51.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.7% below fair value
Current Price $52.47
Bear Case $47.52 9.4% downside ($47.52 - $52.47) / $52.47 = -9.4% $3.96 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $59.40 13.2% upside ($59.40 - $52.47) / $52.47 = 13.2% $3.96 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $71.28 35.8% upside ($71.28 - $52.47) / $52.47 = 35.8% $3.96 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.96$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.96, the base-case value is $59.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $39.91.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (43 analysts) $79.64
Analyst Range $60.00 – $94.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 25%

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $39.91 (below our primary estimate by 33%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $79.64 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples