Pentair plc logo PNR - Pentair plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 23
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $79.70 DETAILS
HIGH: $94.00
LOW: $64.00
MEDIAN: $80.50
CONSENSUS: $79.70
UPSIDE: 28.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 4.5% above fair value
Current Price $62.10
Bear Case $47.52 23.5% downside ($47.52 - $62.10) / $62.10 = -23.5% $3.96 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $59.40 4.3% downside ($59.40 - $62.10) / $62.10 = -4.3% $3.96 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $71.28 14.8% upside ($71.28 - $62.10) / $62.10 = 14.8% $3.96 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.96$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.96, the base-case value is $59.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $37.27.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (43 analysts) $79.70
Analyst Range $64.00 – $94.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 25%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $37.27 (below our primary estimate by 37%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $79.70 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples