Pentair plc logo PNR - Pentair plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 20
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $110.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $125.00
LOW: $92.00
MEDIAN: $112.50
CONSENSUS: $110.33
UPSIDE: 44.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.5% below fair value
Current Price $76.19
Bear Case $64.53 15.3% downside ($64.53 - $76.19) / $76.19 = -15.3% $4.53 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $80.66 5.9% upside ($80.66 - $76.19) / $76.19 = 5.9% $4.53 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $96.80 27.0% upside ($96.80 - $76.19) / $76.19 = 27.0% $4.53 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.53$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $110.33 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $80.66 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $37.27 (below our primary estimate by 45%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $110.33 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples