PLYM - Plymouth Industrial REIT, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$21.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$25.00
LOW:
$17.00
MEDIAN:
$21.00
CONSENSUS:
$21.00
DOWNSIDE:
4.46%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
28.6x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($5.02) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
4.4x
Plain-Language Summary
At $5.02 FFO/share with a 29x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $106.80 per share. Dividend yield: 4.4%. DDM cross-check: $20.65.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$21.00
Analyst Range
$17.00 – $25.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
409%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $20.65 (81% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 409% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify