Plexus Corp. logo PLXS - Plexus Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 6
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $251.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $285.00
LOW: $195.00
MEDIAN: $262.50
CONSENSUS: $251.25
DOWNSIDE: 5.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 99.4% above fair value
Current Price $265.72
Bear Case $106.59 59.9% downside ($106.59 - $265.72) / $265.72 = -59.9% $6.26 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $133.24 49.9% downside ($133.24 - $265.72) / $265.72 = -49.9% $6.26 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $159.89 39.8% downside ($159.89 - $265.72) / $265.72 = -39.8% $6.26 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.26$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 42.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $251.25 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $133.24 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $251.25 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples