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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.6% below fair value
Current Price $89.63
Bear Case $99.48 11.0% upside ($99.48 - $89.63) / $89.63 = 11.0% $5.20 × 19x P/E
Fair Value $118.82 32.6% upside ($118.82 - $89.63) / $89.63 = 32.6% $5.20 × 23x P/E
Bull Case $138.17 54.2% upside ($138.17 - $89.63) / $89.63 = 54.2% $5.20 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.9x
5.2$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (23x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 23x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.20, the base-case value is $118.82 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples