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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 55.5% below fair value
Current Price $85.37
Bear Case $160.07 87.5% upside ($160.07 - $85.37) / $85.37 = 87.5% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $191.99 124.9% upside ($191.99 - $85.37) / $85.37 = 124.9% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $220.61 158.4% upside ($220.61 - $85.37) / $85.37 = 158.4% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 6.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $191.99 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions