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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.9% below fair value
Current Price $93.30
Bear Case $96.27 3.2% upside ($96.27 - $93.30) / $93.30 = 3.2% $5.03 × 19x P/E
Fair Value $114.99 23.2% upside ($114.99 - $93.30) / $93.30 = 23.2% $5.03 × 23x P/E
Bull Case $133.70 43.3% upside ($133.70 - $93.30) / $93.30 = 43.3% $5.03 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.9x
5.03$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (23x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 23x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.03, the base-case value is $114.99 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples