Planet Fitness, Inc. logo PLNT - Planet Fitness, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 20
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $75.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $133.00
LOW: $47.00
MEDIAN: $65.00
CONSENSUS: $75.25
UPSIDE: 40.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.2% below fair value
Current Price $53.48
Bear Case $31.59 40.9% downside ($31.59 - $53.48) / $53.48 = -40.9% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $66.98 25.2% upside ($66.98 - $53.48) / $53.48 = 25.2% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $106.15 98.5% upside ($106.15 - $53.48) / $53.48 = 98.5% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 27.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 13.1% vs our 14.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.25 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $66.98 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions