Planet Fitness, Inc. logo PLNT - Planet Fitness, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 19
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $72.97 DETAILS
HIGH: $126.00
LOW: $50.50
MEDIAN: $65.00
CONSENSUS: $72.97
UPSIDE: 46.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 45.8% below fair value
Current Price $49.88
Bear Case $48.80 2.2% downside ($48.80 - $49.88) / $49.88 = -2.2% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $92.07 84.6% upside ($92.07 - $49.88) / $49.88 = 84.6% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $139.67 180.0% upside ($139.67 - $49.88) / $49.88 = 180.0% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 19.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 8.9% vs our 14.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $92.07 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $72.97
Analyst Range $50.50 – $126.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 26%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $72.97 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions