Planet Fitness, Inc. logo PLNT - Planet Fitness, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 20
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $76.81 DETAILS
HIGH: $133.00
LOW: $47.00
MEDIAN: $65.00
CONSENSUS: $76.81
UPSIDE: 39.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.0% below fair value
Current Price $55.25
Bear Case $31.77 42.5% downside ($31.77 - $55.25) / $55.25 = -42.5% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $67.37 21.9% upside ($67.37 - $55.25) / $55.25 = 21.9% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $106.77 93.2% upside ($106.77 - $55.25) / $55.25 = 93.2% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 27.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 13.4% vs our 14.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.81 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.37 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions