Planet Fitness, Inc. logo PLNT - Planet Fitness, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 20
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $76.65 DETAILS
HIGH: $133.00
LOW: $47.00
MEDIAN: $65.00
CONSENSUS: $76.65
UPSIDE: 44.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.5% below fair value
Current Price $52.88
Bear Case $31.76 39.9% downside ($31.76 - $52.88) / $52.88 = -39.9% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $67.33 27.3% upside ($67.33 - $52.88) / $52.88 = 27.3% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $106.70 101.8% upside ($106.70 - $52.88) / $52.88 = 101.8% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 27.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 13.0% vs our 14.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.65 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.33 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions