Palomar Holdings, Inc. logo PLMR - Palomar Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 9
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $110.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $134.00
LOW: $88.00
MEDIAN: $109.50
CONSENSUS: $110.25
DOWNSIDE: 3.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.7% below fair value
Current Price $113.87
Bear Case $126.17 10.8% upside ($126.17 - $113.87) / $113.87 = 10.8% ROTCE 17.1% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $126.17 10.8% upside ($126.17 - $113.87) / $113.87 = 10.8% ROTCE 22.9% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $126.17 10.8% upside ($126.17 - $113.87) / $113.87 = 10.8% ROTCE 26.3% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

22.9%
7.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (22.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $110.25 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $126.17 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly