Photronics, Inc. logo PLAB - Photronics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 2
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $55.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $55.00
UPSIDE: 85.69%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.8% below fair value
Current Price $29.62
Bear Case $24.36 17.8% downside ($24.36 - $29.62) / $29.62 = -17.8% $2.03 × 12x
Fair Value $32.48 9.7% upside ($32.48 - $29.62) / $29.62 = 9.7% $2.03 × 16x
Bull Case $40.60 37.1% upside ($40.60 - $29.62) / $29.62 = 37.1% $2.03 × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.03$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.03)

Implied Market Multiple 14.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $2.03 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $32.48 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.5x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $55.00
Analyst Range $55.00 – $55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 41%

Warnings

ℹ This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing