Photronics, Inc. logo PLAB - Photronics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 2
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $49.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $48.00
CONSENSUS: $49.33
DOWNSIDE: 4.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 17.6% above fair value
Current Price $51.46
Bear Case $35.36 31.3% downside ($35.36 - $51.46) / $51.46 = -31.3% $2.03 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $43.75 15.0% downside ($43.75 - $51.46) / $51.46 = -15.0% $2.03 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $52.13 1.3% upside ($52.13 - $51.46) / $51.46 = 1.3% $2.03 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.03$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.03)

Implied Market Multiple 25.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $49.33 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.75 per share.

Warnings

Price-to-book value of 2.6x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing