Photronics, Inc. logo PLAB - Photronics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 2
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $51.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $48.00
MEDIAN: $51.50
CONSENSUS: $51.50
UPSIDE: 75.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.7% below fair value
Current Price $29.32
Bear Case $24.36 16.9% downside ($24.36 - $29.32) / $29.32 = -16.9% $2.03 × 12x
Fair Value $32.48 10.8% upside ($32.48 - $29.32) / $29.32 = 10.8% $2.03 × 16x
Bull Case $40.60 38.5% upside ($40.60 - $29.32) / $29.32 = 38.5% $2.03 × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.03$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.03)

Implied Market Multiple 14.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $2.03 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $32.48 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.5x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $51.50
Analyst Range $48.00 – $55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 37%

Warnings

This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.
Wall Street's average price target is $51.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing