PLAB - Photronics, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$49.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$55.00
LOW:
$45.00
MEDIAN:
$48.00
CONSENSUS:
$49.33
DOWNSIDE:
4.14%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80% confidence
Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
2.03$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.03)
Implied Market Multiple
25.3x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $49.33 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.75 per share.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 2.6x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing