Park Aerospace Corp. logo PKE - Park Aerospace Corp.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 177.8% above fair value
Current Price $34.60
Bear Case $10.82 68.7% downside ($10.82 - $34.60) / $34.60 = -68.7% $0.41 × 18x + net cash
Fair Value $12.46 64.0% downside ($12.46 - $34.60) / $34.60 = -64.0% $0.41 × 22x + net cash
Bull Case $14.10 59.3% downside ($14.10 - $34.60) / $34.60 = -59.3% $0.41 × 26x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

22.0x
0.41$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.41)

Implied Market Multiple 84.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.41 at a 22x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $12.46 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 7.1x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 7.1x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing