Park Aerospace Corp. logo PKE - Park Aerospace Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $43.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $43.00
CONSENSUS: $43.00
UPSIDE: 32.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 153.9% above fair value
Current Price $32.52
Bear Case $10.68 67.2% downside ($10.68 - $32.52) / $32.52 = -67.2% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $12.81 60.6% downside ($12.81 - $32.52) / $32.52 = -60.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $14.86 54.3% downside ($14.86 - $32.52) / $32.52 = -54.3% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 67.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 25.2% vs our 9.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $12.81 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions