Park Aerospace Corp. logo PKE - Park Aerospace Corp.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 152.2% above fair value
Current Price $33.65
Bear Case $11.13 66.9% downside ($11.13 - $33.65) / $33.65 = -66.9% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $13.34 60.4% downside ($13.34 - $33.65) / $33.65 = -60.4% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $15.48 54.0% downside ($15.48 - $33.65) / $33.65 = -54.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 67.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 25.1% vs our 9.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $13.34 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions