Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. logo PK - Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 17
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $18.00
LOW: $14.00
MEDIAN: $15.00
CONSENSUS: $15.20
DOWNSIDE: 0.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 163.0% above fair value
Current Price $15.30
Bear Case $4.79 68.7% downside ($4.79 - $15.30) / $15.30 = -68.7% $0.26 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $5.82 62.0% downside ($5.82 - $15.30) / $15.30 = -62.0% $0.26 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $6.84 55.3% downside ($6.84 - $15.30) / $15.30 = -55.3% $0.26 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
0.26$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.26) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 58.1x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.26 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $5.82 per share. Dividend yield: 6.5%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (26 analysts) $15.20
Analyst Range $14.00 – $18.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 62%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.20 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify