Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. logo PK - Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 8
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $16.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $19.00
LOW: $13.00
MEDIAN: $16.00
CONSENSUS: $16.13
UPSIDE: 1.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 173.5% above fair value
Current Price $15.91
Bear Case $4.79 69.9% downside ($4.79 - $15.91) / $15.91 = -69.9% $0.26 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $5.82 63.4% downside ($5.82 - $15.91) / $15.91 = -63.4% $0.26 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $6.84 57.0% downside ($6.84 - $15.91) / $15.91 = -57.0% $0.26 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
0.26$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.26) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 60.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.26 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $5.82 per share. Dividend yield: 6.3%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (26 analysts) $16.13
Analyst Range $13.00 – $19.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 64%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 6.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $16.13 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 64% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify