Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. logo PK - Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 17
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $13.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $15.00
LOW: $11.00
MEDIAN: $13.00
CONSENSUS: $13.00
DOWNSIDE: 11.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 39.6% above fair value
Current Price $14.65
Bear Case $8.81 39.9% downside ($8.81 - $14.65) / $14.65 = -39.9% $0.26 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $10.50 28.4% downside ($10.50 - $14.65) / $14.65 = -28.4% $0.26 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $12.19 16.8% downside ($12.19 - $14.65) / $14.65 = -16.8% $0.26 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
0.26$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.26) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 55.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.00 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.50 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $18.64 (93% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify