PJT Partners Inc. logo PJT - PJT Partners Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $185.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $194.00
LOW: $176.00
MEDIAN: $185.00
CONSENSUS: $185.00
UPSIDE: 2.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 105.0% above fair value
Current Price $180.44
Bear Case $61.61 65.9% downside ($61.61 - $180.44) / $180.44 = -65.9% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.30x TBV
Fair Value $88.02 51.2% downside ($88.02 - $180.44) / $180.44 = -51.2% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $114.43 36.6% downside ($114.43 - $180.44) / $180.44 = -36.6% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

165.0%
8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (165.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 42.25x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 165.0% vs. 8.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $4.27 tangible book, implying $88.02 per share. DDM cross-check: $24.37.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $185.00
Analyst Range $176.00 – $194.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 52%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $24.37 (72% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $185.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly