PJT Partners Inc. logo PJT - PJT Partners Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $168.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $174.00
LOW: $162.00
MEDIAN: $168.00
CONSENSUS: $168.00
UPSIDE: 7.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 31.1% above fair value
Current Price $156.92
Bear Case $83.77 46.6% downside ($83.77 - $156.92) / $156.92 = -46.6% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.24x TBV
Fair Value $119.66 23.7% downside ($119.66 - $156.92) / $156.92 = -23.7% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $155.56 0.9% downside ($155.56 - $156.92) / $156.92 = -0.9% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

165.0%
8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (165.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 37.12x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $168.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $119.66 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $168.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly