PJT Partners Inc. logo PJT - PJT Partners Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $158.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $174.00
LOW: $150.00
MEDIAN: $152.00
CONSENSUS: $158.67
UPSIDE: 1.35%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 17.3% above fair value
Current Price $156.56
Bear Case $93.41 40.3% downside ($93.41 - $156.56) / $156.56 = -40.3% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.21x TBV
Fair Value $133.45 14.8% downside ($133.45 - $156.56) / $156.56 = -14.8% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $173.48 10.8% upside ($173.48 - $156.56) / $156.56 = 10.8% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

165.0%
9.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (165.0%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 37.03x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $158.67 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $133.45 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly