Piper Sandler Companies logo PIPR - Piper Sandler Companies

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $80.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $80.00
CONSENSUS: $80.00
UPSIDE: 24.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 14.0% above fair value
Current Price $64.22
Bear Case $39.42 38.6% downside ($39.42 - $64.22) / $64.22 = -38.6% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.95x TBV
Fair Value $56.32 12.3% downside ($56.32 - $64.22) / $64.22 = -12.3% ROTCE 25.0% → 2.56x TBV
Bull Case $73.22 14.0% upside ($73.22 - $64.22) / $64.22 = 14.0% ROTCE 30.0% → 3.17x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

29.5%
12.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (29.5%) vs. cost of equity (12.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 4.55x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 29.5% vs. 12.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.56x on $14.11 tangible book, implying $56.32 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $80.00
Analyst Range $80.00 – $80.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 30%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $80.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly