Piper Sandler Companies logo PIPR - Piper Sandler Companies

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $97.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $97.00
LOW: $97.00
MEDIAN: $97.00
CONSENSUS: $97.00
UPSIDE: 28.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 34.3% above fair value
Current Price $75.61
Bear Case $39.42 47.9% downside ($39.42 - $75.61) / $75.61 = -47.9% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.98x TBV
Fair Value $56.32 25.5% downside ($56.32 - $75.61) / $75.61 = -25.5% ROTCE 25.0% → 2.60x TBV
Bull Case $73.22 3.2% downside ($73.22 - $75.61) / $75.61 = -3.2% ROTCE 30.0% → 3.22x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

29.5%
12.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (29.5%) vs. cost of equity (12.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 5.36x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 29.5% vs. 12.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.60x on $14.11 tangible book, implying $56.32 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $97.00
Analyst Range $97.00 – $97.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 42%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $97.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly