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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 21
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $25.66 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $26.50
CONSENSUS: $25.66
UPSIDE: 33.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

High-Growth Software 80% confidence

Primary model: Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 51.3% below fair value
Current Price $19.29
Bear Case $22.99 19.2% upside ($22.99 - $19.29) / $19.29 = 19.2% 11% rev growth, 22% terminal margin
Fair Value $39.64 105.5% upside ($39.64 - $19.29) / $19.29 = 105.5% 18% rev growth, 29% terminal margin
Bull Case $57.78 199.5% upside ($57.78 - $19.29) / $19.29 = 199.5% 24% rev growth, 33% terminal margin

Adjust Assumptions

18.0%
29.0%
12.0%

Key Value Driver

Revenue growth (18%) × margin expansion to 29%

Terminal Value % of EV 53%
Implied Market Multiple 2.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.66 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.64 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay is 21% of revenue — your ownership shrinks by about 2.0% each year as new shares are issued. Our estimate already accounts for this dilution.
Gross margin of 80% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.66 (from 48 analysts). Our estimate is 78% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
  • SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
  • Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep