Impinj, Inc. logo PI - Impinj, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $180.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $220.00
LOW: $144.00
MEDIAN: $175.00
CONSENSUS: $180.00
UPSIDE: 20.19%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 68.0% above fair value
Current Price $149.76
Bear Case $44.54 70.3% downside ($44.54 - $149.76) / $149.76 = -70.3% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $89.12 40.5% downside ($89.12 - $149.76) / $149.76 = -40.5% 21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $146.13 2.4% downside ($146.13 - $149.76) / $149.76 = -2.4% 27% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (21% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 102.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $180.00 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.12 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $180.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions